Nowcasting The Business Cycle presents a practical guide for analyzing recession riskthe primary risk factor that drives success and failure in business, finance, wealth management, and so much more. Whether youre an individual investor watching over your retirement account; the owner of a small business; a manager running a billion-dollar pension fund; or a CEO in charge of a global corporation, a large portion of triumph and defeat is closely linked with the broad swings in the economy. The business cycle, in other words, is the mother of all known (and recurring) risk factors. Accordingly, developing a process for assessing the likelihood of this threat is critical. Everyone needs a reliable, timely warning system thats relatively uncomplicated and transparent. Drawing on economic theory and macros historical record, Nowcasting The Business Cycle outlines a simple but effective model for identifying those times when a new recession has probably started. This isnt forecasting, which is a fools errand when it comes to the economy. Instead, the goal is recognizing when a majority of key indicators have already reached a tipping point. That may sound like a trivial advantage, but most peopleincluding many economistsdont fully recognize when a recession has begun until the deterioration is obvious. By that point, the opportunity has probably passed for taking defensive measures in your investment portfolio, your business, or your career. The real challenge is less about predicting and more about developing solid intuition for recognizing when the macro threat is exceptionally high. Even a small degree of progress here can provide a considerable boost to your strategic insight. If we can learn the techniques for recognizing a cyclical downturns presence relatively earlysoon after its begun, or just as its startingwell have an advantage that tends to elude most folks. Nowcasting The Business Cycle provides a roadmap for ensuring that you wont be caught by surprise when the next recession strikes. Thats a crucial advantage for one powerful reason: Theres always another recession coming.

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